Put yourself in the shoes of a 22-year-old graduate in Singapore, Mumbai or Abu Dhabi this month.
Brent was at about $104 a barrel on 24 September, up from $69 a year ago. Hormuz traffic has dropped from over 100 ships a day to a handful. The IEA expects world oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day this year. One US major is cutting up to a fifth of its staff. Malaysia's national oil company cut 10% and froze hiring last year.
If I were that graduate, I would be asking the question too. Is this a career, or a sinking ship?
My answer is: don't be scared, but be choosy. And to the hiring leaders and HR heads reading this, something slightly uncomfortable. Much of the fear is coming from us, not the market.
The demand drop is a war effect, not a trend. High prices are forcing people to use less. The same IEA report expects demand to grow again by 2.4 million barrels a day in 2027. Shell's latest outlook, admittedly from a seller, sees global LNG demand rising about 65% by 2050, led by Asia.
The job cuts are mostly about mergers, automation and investors wanting cash back. In the US, extraction jobs are down almost 40% from 2016, yet production is near record highs. Routine field and back-office roles are the most exposed. That is not the same as the industry shutting down.
Other parts are growing. Over 90 bcm a year of new LNG capacity got the go-ahead in 2025, the second-highest year on record. India's largest refiner, which with its subsidiary runs about 31% of the country's refining capacity, has agreed a trading venture in Singapore with a global trader. A Gulf NOC is taking its trading from about 1.2 to 2 million barrels a day and brought in an outsider to lead it.
Volatility is bad news for a fuel bill. For a trader, risk manager or LNG originator, it is the job.
The 2026 Global Energy Talent Index surveyed over 9,000 energy professionals. 48% of the traditional energy workforce is 45 or older. Only 19% is aged 25 to 34. And only a third of hiring managers actively recruit graduates.
I have seen this happen before. When prices fall, graduate intake is frozen first because it is the easiest line to cut. When prices spike, everyone wants experienced people and there aren't enough. I suspect today's thin 25 to 34 band is partly the bill for the 2015-16 downturn. We are about to repeat it.
A graduate who sees an industry that won't hire them in a bad year draws a fair conclusion. It isn't the oil price that scares them off. It's us.
Some graduates don't want this industry for reasons of principle. They think it is on the wrong side of climate change. No pitch will change that, and we shouldn't try to trick them. But many others are simply unsure. For them, the honest answer is that the world will run on oil and gas for decades, and it matters who runs it. The skills also carry over. Pricing a cargo, reading a contract or managing a position works the same whether the molecule is crude, LNG or hydrogen.
Keep a graduate intake going through the cycle, even if it is small. Five good hires a year beats fifty in a boom and none after.
Be honest about which jobs are shrinking and which are growing. Right now the growth is in commercial work: trading, risk, gas and LNG marketing, origination.
And fix the story. Most graduates picture a rig in the middle of the sea. Very few know a 26-year-old in Singapore can be making real calls on an LNG book.
So, should they be scared? No. They should be picky, and our job is to show them what to pick. Happy to compare notes with anyone working on this.